On 1 June, Makashule Gana of Rise Mzansi was elected chairperson of the Section 89 Impeachment Committee. As Chairperson, Mr Gana will lead the committee, oversee its proceedings, guide its deliberations, and ensure that its work is conducted in accordance with the Constitution, the Rules of the National Assembly, and the committee’s mandate under Section 89 of the Constitution.
This marks one of the few occasions that a non-ANC MP is elected chair of an ad hoc committee, especially one that may have profound implications for the ANC and its leader. This highlights South Africa’s evolving post-2024 political terrain, a landscape defined by no clear majority, coalition dependencies, and transactional loyalties.
ANC’s Numerical Minority, Lingering Influence
For the first time in decades, the ANC cannot rely on brute numerical force to shield its President. Its representatives enter the process without the ability to dominate proceedings or unilaterally shape the final report. In any straight vote inside the committee, the ANC stands outnumbered, and with a non-ANC chair now presiding, the procedural reins are no longer in its hands. This marks a historic shift from the days of outright majority control.
Now, as with the election of Gana as chairperson over Dr Lehlohonolo Mahlatsi of United Africans Transformation (UAT), the ANC will have to rely on its Government of National Unity’s (GNU partners such as the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and Patriotic Alliance (PA) to protect President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The Firewall of Coalition Loyalty
Yet raw seat counts and even the election of an independent-minded chair from Rise Mzansi do not tell the full story. The decisive political dynamic lies in the GNU arrangements that continue to underpin stability. The IFP, the PA, and Al Jama-ah have already declared publicly that they will not support any move to impeach Ramaphosa, irrespective of the committee’s eventual findings. This is after the Good Party and PAC stated that they will not be party to the committee’s proceedings.
These declarations are critical. As governing partners with ministerial positions in the GNU, the IFP, PA, Al Jama-ah, Good Party, and PAC are not neutral. Their pre-emptive commitment to the President acts as a powerful political firewall. Even if the committee, now under Gana’s leadership, produces damaging evidence or a critical report, these parties are signalling their alignment with the ANC when the matter returns to the full National Assembly for the crucial two-thirds majority vote required for impeachment.
The DA will also face a dilemma if the committee finds adversely against Ramaphosa. It has long said that it was willing to work with the ANC, so long as Ramaphosa is in charge and it is in government to prevent the ANC from governing with the EFF and MKP.
Opposition Ambition Meets Coalition Reality
Parties outside of the GNU, particularly the EFF and MK Party, view the committee as a vital platform to press the case against the President, not only to investigate wrongdoing but also to expose executive impunity.
However, their leverage remains constrained. The DA, despite holding five seats, operates from within the GNU framework. Breaking ranks on an issue as fundamental as impeachment would risk destabilising the very coalition that grants it executive influence.
The result is a structural imbalance: opposition parties can investigate and amplify, but they lack the coalition partners needed to convert committee deliberations into actual removal of the President.
The Central Paradox of Post-2024 Politics
The election of Gana as chair therefore highlights a profound paradox in South Africa’s coalition era. Numerically, the ANC is hamstrung in the impeachment process. Politically, it retains decisive protection through strategic alliances forged for stability. The IFP and PA’s refusal to back impeachment reeks of more loyalty to the compact that keeps the government functional.
Power no longer flows purely from seat totals in parliament. It flows from the quiet understandings and mutual dependencies that sustain coalitions. The committee will deliberate, evidence will be presented, and divided views are almost inevitable. But the political outcome may have been largely pre-determined the day the GNU was formed.
In the end, this impeachment process tests not only the President’s conduct in the Phala Phala saga, but the measure of coalition politics, where loyalty and self-interest will matter more than principle.
